Events to Look Out For Next Week

  • Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 49.5 in March.
  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to be confirmed at 1.5%y/y in March, with core inflation holding at 1%.
  • Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – February’s Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.3% m/m, from the 0.2% rise in January.
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to come out at 54.5 in March, compared to the 2-year low of 54.2 in February.

Tuesday – 02 April 2019

  • RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 03:30) RBA held rates steady at 1.50% in February, matching widespread expectations. Overall, the RBA maintains its view that inflation will eventually pick up, as the economy strengthens. Hence as the statement continues to be consistent with an eventual rate hike (RBA is cautiously optimistic on growth and inflation), no change is expected in the policy through the mid-year.
  • Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – February Durable Goods orders are expected to decline to 1.2%, following a 0.3% January gain.

Wednesday – 03 April 2019

  • Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – February’s Retail sales could have improved by 0.2%, following a 0.1% January gain.
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 165k for March compared to the 183K in February.
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM non-Manufacturing PMI in the US is expected to slip to 58.7 in March, compared to 59.7 in February, supporting the strong economic climate despite the small decrease in its value.

Thursday – 04 April 2019

  • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. At the same time, in the last meeting, ECB turned all out dovish and not only confirmed another round of TLTRO loans, but also pushed out the rate guidance into 2020. President Draghi stressed that the decision was unanimous and that the risks still remain to the downside.

Friday – 05 April 2019

  • China – Ching Ming Festival – Please note that due to Chinese Ching Ming Festival, the financial market in China will be closed on April 5th.
  • Nonfarm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – The March nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 175k, with a 165k private payroll gain. Hourly earnings are expected to hold at 3.4%, while the unemployment rate is expected to be steady at 3.8%.
  • Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The unemployment rate in Canada is anticipated at 5.8% unchanged from the February reading.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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