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USDCAD: Positive as 1.2850 support holds

Market Analysis


The dollar majors lacked direction into the ECB policy announcement and press conference. USDJPY has remained within yesterday’s range so far today, posting a range so far of 105.89-106.20, while EURUSD rallied from 1.2380 to 1.2430 following the ECB announcement, where the Bank tweaked its guidance on QE. The pairing is likely to steady now into the 8:30 ET Draghi presser. Market participants are also watching the development of Trump’s tariffs and global response, and ultimately what economic impact might be.

Meanwhile, the lack of direction for Greenback, could not be identified today  against the Canadian dollar. The Loonie managed overnight to find its feet on news that Trump will exempt Canada, along with Mexico, from his proposed steel an aluminium tariffs, though this will be temporary. However since early today, CAD presents weakness against USD, with USDCAD pair, reverting to the upside, recovering 50% of the losses seen overnight. The pair managed to enter the upper Bollinger Bands Pattern, in the 4-hour chart, after retesting for a 4-th consecutive day, the immediate support level at 1.2850. Significant is the fact that it is currently moving above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, at 1.2830,  set since 2017’s decline. The maintenance of the S1, indicates the continuation of the positive long-term outlook of the pair, along with the trading above all 3 Moving averages and the positive momentum indicators. The MACD remains positive since mif February, RSI  holds above neutral zone, while Stochastic, rebounded from oversold territory.

In the short time-frame, the trading today above the 20 and 50 Moving averages, with momentum indicators in positive configuration rallies are now a chance to buy any dip seen. The hourly chart shows a mixed outlook near term with a rebound in yesterday’s session muddying the waters, but whilst the support at 1.2850 remains intact the buyers will be in control.Next support is at 1.2800, while initial resistance is at 1.2980.

Upcoming data out of Canada included building permits.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst


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