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GBPJPY – Retesting February’s Low?

Market Analysis


The GBPJPY is traded bearishly for a 2nd consecutive day, and a 3rd consecutive week as well. This aggressive rally seen the last 2 weeks, after the fall below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 156.00 which has been holding since 2016, drove the price  below the 20 and 50- DAY SMA.

Today, the miss of the UK GDP for the last quarter of 2017, set Sterling under-pressure. The U.K. Q4 GDP growth unexpectedly revised down to 0.4% q/q, from 0.5% q/q. Hence the pair seen breaking the initial Support of the day at 149.28,  while it is pushing lower, below the round 149.00 level, by extending the Bollinger Bands patterns further southwards.

Next immediate support levels come at 148.50 and the significant 147.75, which is the confluence 200-DAY SMA and February’s low. The momentum of the pair is seen increasing to the downside, as presented by MACD histogram, in long-term and short-term timeframe as well, suggesting that the GBPJPY is likely to reach the support areas mentioned earlier. Therefore any swing higher could be consider as a selling opportunity.

In the hourly chart, the technical point of view indicates strong intra-day weakens, pair broke the recent swing low, while momentum indicators, present further losses. The MACD lines are moving lower in the negative territory, the stochastic oscillator has entered the oversold zone, while RSI is around 32, pointing down. Meanwhile, 20-period SMA crossed an hour ago, the 200-period SMA. Therefore the intra-day picture is also confirming the continuation of the bearish trend.

To the upside however, the price needs to erach and break above the  immediate resistance 151.00, in order the buying interest to rise.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst


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