After both Markit PMIs as well the Ifo reported mounting capacity pressures, there is a good chance that the ECB will cut back asset purchases by more than the EUR 30 bln that Bloomberg consensus suggests. However, while this is likely to see a knee jerk reaction on forex and bond markets, we expect Draghi to package the taper in a dovish statement and forward guidance, in particular leaving the option for another program extension open to dampen the impact and prevent “overreactions” on forex markets. Draghi will also confirm the sequence of exit steps, with rates expected to remain low well past the end of asset purchases, which with a 9 months program extension would push out any rate hike into 2019. And even with EUR 20 bln per months for another 9 months, the ECB will still extend its balance sheet by a further EUR 180 bln, so monetary policy will not only remain expansionary, it will be even more expansionary than now, with Draghi only gently taking the foot off the accelerator. Indeed, the good news this week was that while Bund yields jumped higher Eurozone peripherals actually mostly outperformed. So at least on that front Draghi can be a bit more confident that “less for longer” will not be a cause of a fresh wave of instability.
The euro has been trading buoyantly into the ECB announcement today. EURUSD clocked a one-week high of 1.1837 earlier in the Asian session, and while EURJPY and EURCHF have remained below their respective 22- and 33-month highs of yesterday, they remain underpinned, with both crosses having picked up from shallow dips. EURUSD has akey support/restance level at 1.1830 which represents the 38.2 Fibonacci retrace level from the September 8th high at 1.2092.
Click here to access the HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! The next webinar will start in:
Senior Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.